You know, the funny thing about rallies in the market these days, especially the largest one day gain by a country mile, is that it’s hard to know what’s driving the move. There’s an old saying about the markets, and it relates to dead cats. I am in no way equipped to make market prognostications given the current turmoil, but it’s hard to look at the advances today and not think that there is something along the lines of a dead cat bounce happening.
The funny thing (depending on your point of view) is that the darn things bounce pretty high when they have had as far a fall as the Dow has seen in the last month. Recall, we’ve seen 26% decline in the last month alone. Is now the time to stand up and cheer about the policies working, or a time to sit back and mull over the realities of the market positioning and where things are going? I’m not sure which it is, but I would really hate for a bunch of people to start congratulating themselves with high-fives and back slaps around the notion that “the plan is working.” We simply do have enough data at this point to call it.